Establishing regional spheres of influence, Turkey and Japan will begin to threaten US interests. However, in the years after the end of the Second Cold War and collapse of Russia, the United States will gradually become uneasy as Turkey and Japan expand their military power and economic influence. By 2020, the United States will have been allied with Turkey and Japan for over 75 years. Around this time, space programs for military use will begin to emerge, and Japan and Turkey will increasingly begin to develop military capabilities in space.Īt the beginning of this period, the United States will be allied with all three powers. Now possessing substantial military strength, Poland will expand its economic influence into what was formerly European Russia, and will begin to compete with Turkey for influence in the important economic region of the Volga River Valley. Friedman predicts that Japan will build military strength capable of regionally projecting power across East Asia during this time.įinally, Poland will continue to lead its military alliance, the "Polish Bloc." Poland and its allies will be a major power, much like the time of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth. Friedman predicts that Japan will change its foreign policy during this time period, becoming more geopolitically aggressive, beginning a major military buildup. Meanwhile, Japan will expand its economic influence to regions of coastal China, the Russian Far East, and many Pacific Islands. However, Israel will be forced to come to an accommodation with Turkey due to Turkey's military and political power. Israel will continue to be a powerful nation and will be the only country in the immediate region to remain outside the Turkish sphere of influence. The Turkish sphere of influence will extend into the Arab world, which will have increasingly fragmented by then, and north into Russia and other former Soviet countries. Initially supported by the United States, Turkey will expand its sphere of influence and become a regional power, much as it was during the time of the Ottoman Empire. In the 2020s and 2030s, three main powers will emerge in Eurasia: Turkey, Poland, and Japan. In Russia, North Caucasus and other Muslim regions, as well as the Pacific Far East will become independent, Finland will annex Karelia, Romania will annex Moldova, Tibet will gain independence with help from India, Taiwan will extend its influence into mainland China, while the United States, European powers, and Japan will re-create regional spheres of influence in mainland China. Other powers will then move in to annex or establish spheres of influence in the area, and in many cases, regional leaders will secede.
In the 2020s, the collapse of the Russian government and the fragmentation of mainland China will leave Eurasia in general chaos.
He works on the assumption that fragmentation is the most likely scenario.
Friedman gives two possible scenarios: that the Chinese central government will expel outside interests and rule with an iron fist to keep the country together, or that China will fragment, with the central government gradually losing much of its real power and the provinces becoming increasingly autonomous. Regional tension in mainland China will grow between the prosperous coastal regions and the impoverished interior regions. The book asserts that the rapid economic development of China since 1980 will cause internal pressures and inequalities in Chinese society. Other former Soviet countries will fragment as well.Īround this time, China will politically and culturally fragment as well. In the early 2020s, the New Cold War will end when the economic strain and political pressure on Russia, coupled with Russia's declining population, and poor infrastructure, cause the federal government of Russia to completely collapse, much like the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Around 2015, a Polish-led military alliance of countries in Central and Eastern Europe will begin to form, which is referred to in the book as the "Polish Bloc." Friedman speculates in the book that the United States will probably become a close ally of some Central and Eastern European countries: Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. The United States will become a close ally to some Central and Eastern European countries, all of whom will be dedicated to resisting Russian geopolitical threats during this period. During this period, Russia's military will pose a regional challenge to the United States. It will be characterized by Russian attempts to expand its sphere of influence into Central and Eastern Europe, coupled with a buildup of Russian military capabilities.
In the 2010s, the conflict between the US and Islamic fundamentalists will die down, and a second Cold War, less extensive and shorter than the first, will take place between the United States and Russia.
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